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البنك الدولي: آثار الحرب في أوكرانيا ستكون ملموسة على اقتصادات الشرق الأوسط

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البنك الدولي: آثار الحرب في أوكرانيا ستكون ملموسة على اقتصادات الشرق الأوسط

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مدار الساعة ـ نشر في 2022/09/03 الساعة 11:26

البنك الدولي آثار الحرب في أوكرانيا

<br /> مدار الساعة – قال نائب رئيس مجموعة البنك الدولي لشؤون منطقة الشرق<br /> الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا، فريد بلحاج، إن المنطقة معرضة لتداعيات<br /> التطورات السريعة للحرب في أوكرانيا. وأضاف في تصريحات نشرها البنك<br /> الدولي، أن آثار الأزمة ستكون ملموسة -وإن كانت بدرجات متفاوتة- على<br /> اقتصادات المنطقة، و”مما يبعث على الأسى أنه قد تكون لها تبعات سلبية<br /> مُضاعفة على مستويات الأمن الغذائي والرفاه عبر أرجاء المنطقة، فضلاً<br /> عن جائحة كورونا، وتعطُّل سلاسل الإمداد، ومشكلات داخلية تخص كل بلد<br /> من بلدانها”. ولخّص بلحاج القنوات الرئيسية لتأثير الأزمة في خمس فئات<br /> هي؛ صدمات أسعار الغذاء (لاسيما القمح)، زيادات أسعار النفط والغاز،<br /> عزوف المستثمرين عن المخاطر/جنوحهم إلى الاستثمارات الآمنة؛ مما قد<br /> يؤثِّر على تدفقات رؤوس الأموال الخاصة على الأسواق الصاعدة ككل،<br /> تحويلات المغتربين، والسياحة. وقال، إنه “لا يمكن أن يكون هناك رابح<br /> من حرب مدمرة كالحرب في أوكرانيا، لكن البلدان المصدرة للمواد<br /> الهيدروكربونية مثل قطر والسعودية والكويت وليبيا والجزائر، قد تشهد<br /> تحسناً في أرصدة المالية العامة وميزان المدفوعات الخارجية وتعزيز<br /> معدلات النمو”. “من المحتمل أيضاً أن تشهد البلدان المصدرة للغاز، على<br /> وجه الخصوص، زيادة هيكلية في الطلب من أوروبا” وفق بلحاج، حيث أعلنت<br /> سلطات الاتحاد الأوروبي عن اهتمامها بتنويع مصادر إمداداتها من منتجات<br /> الطاقة. وأوضح أن البلدان غير المنتجة للنفط سوف تتعرض لتداعيات سلبية<br /> قد تقود إلى توترات اجتماعية إضافية. وفيما يتعلق بالتحويلات، لاسيما<br /> تلك التي يرسلها المغتربون في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي، قال، إنها<br /> “لن تُعوِّض إلا عن جزء يسير من صدمة الهيدروكربونات (مثل الأردن<br /> ومصر)”. أمَّا البلدان الأكثر تأثراً بحركة السياحة مثل مصر؛ التي<br /> يُشكِّل الروس والأوكرانيون على الأقل ثلث السياح الوافدين إليها،<br /> توقع بلحاج أن تشهد ركوداً في هذا القطاع، وما لذلك من تداعيات سلبية<br /> على معدلات التشغيل وميزان المدفوعات. وأوضح أن “الصراع في أوكرانيا<br /> سيُؤثِّر سلبيا وبشكل ملموس على عدة اقتصادات في المنطقة؛ مثل لبنان<br /> وسوريا وتونس واليمن”، مبينا أن “هذه البلدان تعتمد بشكل أساسي على<br /> أوكرانيا و/أو روسيا في الحصول على وارداتها الغذائية، ولاسيما القمح<br /> والحبوب”. ومن المتوقع أن تؤدي الأزمة إلى تعطُّل سلاسل توريد الحبوب<br /> والبذور الزيتية، وزيادة أسعار الأغذية، وارتفاع كبير في تكاليف<br /> الإنتاج المحلية في قطاع الزراعة. وبين أنه سيكون لانخفاض غلات<br /> المحاصيل والدخول لاسيما المزارعين من أصحاب الحيازات الصغيرة آثار<br /> سلبية على سبل كسب العيش، وقد يؤثِّر ذلك على المنتمين إلى الفئات<br /> الفقيرة والأكثر احتياجاً الذين يعتمدون على الزراعة في كسب أرزاقهم<br /> أكثر من غيرهم. وأوضح بلحاج، أنه “تأتي على رأس اهتمامات البنك الدولي<br /> البلدان الهشة بالفعل في المنطقة مثل سوريا ولبنان واليمن التي تُنذر<br /> الأزمة الأوكرانية بتعريض أمنها الغذائي لخطر بالغ”. وأشار إلى أن<br /> سوريا تستورد نحو ثلثي احتياجاتها من المواد الغذائية والنفط، ويأتي<br /> معظم وارداتها من القمح من روسيا. وبين أن لبنان يستورد من أوكرانيا<br /> وروسيا أكثر من 90% من احتياجاته من الحبوب، واحتياطاته من الحبوب لا<br /> تكفي إلا لمدة شهر تقريبا، وفق بلحاج، مضيفا: “يستورد اليمن نحو 40%<br /> من احتياجاته من القمح من هذين البلدين المتحاربين”. وأضاف أن عدد من<br /> يعانون من الأزمة أو -الأسوأ- من نقص حاد في الأمن الغذائي في اليمن<br /> قفز من 15 مليونا إلى أكثر من 16 مليونا في ثلاثة أشهر فقط في أواخر<br /> عام 2021، وستؤدي الحرب في أوكرانيا حتماً إلى تفاقم هذه الدينامية<br /> القاتمة بالفعل في اليمن. “قد تكون للصدمات المُضاعَفة للحرب في<br /> أوكرانيا تداعيات مفجعة على بعض بلدان المنطقة إذا لم يتم تعزيز<br /> المساعدات الإنسانية والإنمائية إليها في 2022”. وللإحساس بضخامة<br /> الأزمة وهول الخطب، على الصعيد الإقليمي، قال: “لننظر إلى أن المنطقة،<br /> وإن كانت تُمثِّل 6% فقط من إجمالي سكان العالم، فإن فيها أكثر من 20%<br /> من الذين يعانون من نقص حاد في الأمن الغذائي في العالم”. وأكد بلحاج<br /> أن البنك الدولي على أهبة الاستعداد للاستجابة بكل الأدوات المتاحة<br /> الملائمة لطبيعة مواطن الضعف والقصور على المستوى القطري. وفي بلدان<br /> مثل المغرب وتونس ومصر، يمكن أن يكون لعمليات البنك الدولي الخاصة<br /> بدعم موازناتها دورها الفعَّال، حيث من المتوقع أن تكون آثار الأزمة<br /> أكثر شدة على مستوى قيود المالية العامة الكلية الوطنية بهذه البلدان.<br /> “إننا على استعداد أيضا لزيادة مساندتنا للإنتاج المحلي والتسويق<br /> التجاري للأغذية الزراعية، وإدارة المخاطر الزراعية والاحتياطيات<br /> الغذائية في البلدان التي تتعرض لصدمات على ذلك المستوى سواء من خلال<br /> زيادة تكاليف الطاقة أو الأسمدة، أو عوامل أخرى مثل الأزمات المرتبطة<br /> بالجفاف/تغير المناخ (مثل العراق واليمن وتونس ولبنان ومصر)” وفق<br /> بلحاج. وأشار إلى أن البنك على استعداد في الأجل القريب، لتوسيع<br /> برامجه للحماية الاجتماعية الموجَّهة للتغذية في بلدان مختارة عن طريق<br /> البناء على الأعمال التي أُنجزت منذ 2020 في سياق الاستجابة والتصدي<br /> لجائحة كورونا. وأكد بلحاج التزام البنك بالاستمرار بتقديم مساعدات<br /> فنية وتحليلية وثيقة ومُوجَّهة “لاسيما للبلدان التي ستكون أشد تضررا<br /> في مجالات تتراوح من استدامة المالية العامة، وإصلاح أنظمة الدعم،<br /> والأمن الغذائي، ورصد المعاملات التجارية، وإدارة المخاطر الزراعية”.<br /> “كما كان الحال حينما ألمَّت أزماتٌ أخرى في المنطقة، نحن في البنك<br /> الدولي على استعداد مرة أخرى أن نمضي قدماً للاضطلاع بهذه المسؤولية<br /> وتأكيد مساندتنا التي لا تتزعزع لشعوب منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال<br /> إفريقيا” وفق نائب رئيس مجموعة البنك الدولي لشؤون المنطقة.</p></div><p>#البنك #الدولي #آثار #الحرب #في #أوكرانيا #ستكون #ملموسة #على #اقتصادات #الشرق #الأوسط</p><p><a href="https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMPLSlgswhfmtAw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" class="css-11y1081-button-fontSpacingVerticalOffset-defaultSize-iconDefault-iconNudgeAnimation">تابعوا Tunisactus على Google News<br /> <script async src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns='http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org/2000/svg' style='width:auto;height:auto'%2F%3E" data-src="https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js"></script> <ins class="adsbygoogle" style="display:block" data-ad-client="ca-pub-6397246382488894" data-ad-slot="9219852421" data-ad-format="auto" data-full-width-responsive="true"></ins> <script>(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle 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id="bv-rename-images" type="text/javascript" data-cfasync="false" bv-exclude="true">var __defProp=Object.defineProperty;var __name=(target,value)=>__defProp(target,"name",{value,configurable:!0});const IMAGE_URL_ATTRIBUTES=["data-src","data-lazy-original","data-lazy-src","data-lazysrc","data-lazysrcset","data-lazy-srcset","data-envira-src","data-srcset","bv-data-src","bv-data-srcset","data-large_image","data-depicter-src","data-depicter-srcset","data-orig-src"],IMAGE_EXTENSIONS=["jpg","jpeg","png","gif","svg","jpe","webp"],BV_CDN_URL="##BV_CDN_URL##",BV_SITE_OPT_PATH="al_opt_content";var BV_IS_RESIZE_ENABLED=!0,BV_IMAGES_NOT_TO_RESIZE=[];function isValidUrl(url){return!!/^https?:\/\//i.test(url)}__name(isValidUrl,"isValidUrl");function isImage(url){let img_ext=getExtension(url);return!!IMAGE_EXTENSIONS.includes(img_ext)}__name(isImage,"isImage");function getImageDeviceName(resized_infos_str,dimensions){let device_width=window.outerWidth;if(resized_infos_str){const device_size_infos=resized_infos_str.split(";");for(const device_info of device_size_infos){const[device_name,resized_dim]=device_info.split(":"),[width_str,height_str]=resized_dim.split("*"),width=parseInt(width_str,10),height=parseInt(height_str,10);if(dimensions.width<=width&&dimensions.height<=height&&device_width<=width)return device_name}return""}return device_width<=480?"bv_resized_mobile":device_width<=820?"bv_resized_ipad":device_width<=1536?"bv_resized_desktop":""}__name(getImageDeviceName,"getImageDeviceName");function isWebpSupported(){var elem=document.createElement("canvas");return elem.getContext&&elem.getContext("2d")?elem.toDataURL("image/webp").indexOf("data:image/webp")==0:!1}__name(isWebpSupported,"isWebpSupported");function getExtension(url){return url.split("?")[0].split(".").pop().toLowerCase()}__name(getExtension,"getExtension");function getNewImageUrlQuery(url,webp_status2,dimensions){let url_and_query_string=url.split("?"),new_url=url_and_query_string[0],query_string=url_and_query_string[1];if(!webp_status2)return query_string?url_and_query_string[0]+`?${query_string}`:url_and_query_string[0];let params=new URLSearchParams(query_string),resized_infos=params.get("bv-resized-infos");params.delete("bv-resized-infos"),query_string=params.toString();var shouldResize=BV_IS_RESIZE_ENABLED&&!BV_IMAGES_NOT_TO_RESIZE.some(pattern=>new_url.includes(pattern));if(shouldResize){let device_name=getImageDeviceName(resized_infos,dimensions),img_ext=getExtension(new_url);device_name!=""&&(new_url+="."+device_name+"."+img_ext)}return new_url+=".bv.webp",query_string&&(new_url+=`?${query_string}`),new_url}__name(getNewImageUrlQuery,"getNewImageUrlQuery");function isOurCdnImage(url){return!!(url.includes(BV_CDN_URL)||url.includes(BV_SITE_OPT_PATH))}__name(isOurCdnImage,"isOurCdnImage");function canChangeUrl(url){return getExtension(url)==="svg"||url.includes("data:image")?!1:!!isOurCdnImage(url)}__name(canChangeUrl,"canChangeUrl");function handleNodeElements(node_elements,img_url_attrs,webp_status2){node_elements.forEach(node_element=>{img_url_attrs.forEach(attr=>{flag=!1,node_element.hasAttribute(attr)&&(attr_val=node_element.getAttribute(attr),new_val="",attr_val.split(",").forEach(src=>{let src_parts=src.trim().split(" "),clean_url=src_parts.shift();if(flag?new_val+=",":flag=!0,isValidUrl(clean_url)&&isImage(clean_url))if(canChangeUrl(clean_url)){let new_url=getNewImageUrlQuery(clean_url,webp_status2,node_element.getBoundingClientRect());new_val+=[new_url].concat(src_parts).join(" ")}else new_val+=src;else new_val+=src}),node_element.setAttribute(attr,new_val))})})}__name(handleNodeElements,"handleNodeElements");function handleTagWithStyle(tag_elements_with_style2,webp_status2){tag_elements_with_style2.forEach(tag_element=>{let img_url=tag_element.getAttribute("bv-style-url");if(img_url&&isValidUrl(img_url)&&isImage(img_url)&&canChangeUrl(img_url)){let new_img_url=getNewImageUrlQuery(img_url,webp_status2,tag_element.getBoundingClientRect()),style_attr_val=tag_element.getAttribute("bv-data-style");style_attr_val&&(new_style_val=style_attr_val.replace(img_url,new_img_url),tag_element.setAttribute("bv-data-style",new_style_val))}})}__name(handleTagWithStyle,"handleTagWithStyle");let webp_status=isWebpSupported(),img_tags=document.querySelectorAll(".bv-tag-attr-replace");handleNodeElements(img_tags,IMAGE_URL_ATTRIBUTES,webp_status);let tag_elements_with_style=document.querySelectorAll(".bv-style-attr-replace");handleTagWithStyle(tag_elements_with_style,webp_status); </script> </body></html> <!-- This website is optimized by Airlift. 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